I've made no secret about my absolute love of movies. They have been my life's obsession since I was old enough to speak and walk. I remember, growing up, watching the likes of the "Star Wars" saga, the "Lord of the Rings" trilogy, the "Harry Potter" series, and the Sam Raimi "Spider-Man" trilogy, among others. To this day those films still capture my imagination as they did back then.
But now I'm hearing about all the films set to come out in 2015, films that should make my inner child go absolutely nuts. Among them- "Batman vs. Superman," "Avengers: Age of Ultron," "Ant-Man," "Fantastic Four," "Jurassic Park IV," "Independence Day 2," "Pirates of the Caribbean 5," "Terminator 5," "James Bond 24," "Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2," "Kung Fu Panda 3," "Finding Dory," "Assassin's Creed," "Warcraft" and the biggest surprise of all, "Star Wars Episode VII."
My inner cinephile is still reeling from all these announcements, the Avengers, Star Wars and Superman/Batman ones in particular. But while any kid would look at all these titles and swoon, as a cynical adult I look at all this with suspicion. It's something I've noticed the last few years- every summer, we get more and more sequels, prequels, remakes and reboots.
I have been around to remember franchises like Spider-Man, Batman, X-Men, Pirates, Harry Potter, Transformers, the Star Wars prequels, Star Trek and others blossom and falter, while other series like "Die Hard" and "Indiana Jones" were resurrected. Every year, more would come, and every year there would be hits and misses. Such is the way of Hollywood. Almost anyone will tell you how unoriginal the film-making industry is today, with executives only greenlighting blockbusters with franchise potential so they get a return on their investments.
In this day and age, as much as I hate to admit it, I see their point. Film-making is first and foremost a business, and executives invest heavily in brands that turn a profit. I'm not here to remark on Hollywood's obsession with "brands," or franchises. I'm here instead to comment on what this will lead to. The thing is, I don't even have to do a lot of the heavy lifting.
It's already been predicted by the two men who arguably started Hollywood's blockbuster franchise obsession- George Lucas and Stephen Spielberg. Earlier this year, speaking at the University of Southern California, both talked about how the film industry was headed for an "implosion," where "half a dozen mega budget movies are going to go crashing into the ground, and that's going to change the paradigm" (quote taken from an article of The Guardian). I've mentioned in previous rants how certain event films have changed the paradigm of Hollywood film-making. Now it seems we may be set for another paradigm-a return to smaller, independent films.
I would say the process has already begun. The Internet has made it possible for anyone with a webcam and a computer to make their own films. Thanks to Kickstarter campaigns, we're getting movies like "Veronica Mars" made just from donations. Netflix has made the small screen the ideal place to watch film and TV, some even made exclusively for online streaming. The point is, you don't need a gigantic budget to make a film anymore. Look at how Hollywood is investing its money. Recent films like "John Carter," "Battleship," "Pacific Rim" and "The Lone Ranger," which cost upwards of 100 to 200 million dollars to make, are flopping at the box office. All four were promising films that executives hoped would kickstart a franchise. All four failed. What does this say about the industry as a whole?
Sure, we still have surefire hits. "Iron Man 3" made a billion on the good will of "Avengers," which was considered a huge risk at the time but paid off thanks to the crossover appeal of multiple superheroes. Now every comic book film wants to be just like it. Animated children's films like the recent "Despicable Me 2" still rake in the dough, so it's no surprise we're getting more of that. And franchise resurrections, while not always critically lauded, are almost always box office hits if only for the nostalgia factor. But now we're getting to an age where all of these blockbusters are going head to head, at once, in an incredibly short time frame.
Yes, it's happened before. And yes, the film industry didn't implode. But films are getting more and more expensive. Hollywood is banking entirely off the money made by these films to turn a profit. While some of these films will succeed, not all of them will be the hits Hollywood wants them to be. Some will outright bomb, while others will just underperform. We are living in an economy where people can't just blow all their cash going to see a film in theaters, not when there's a more comfortable, less expensive alternative waiting at home on a laptop.
Hollywood knows this, which is why these franchise films more often than not feel like gimmicks instead of actual movies. People still lap it up, but by 2015 I think everyone will start wising up. They will question, as I have, why all these giant blockbusters are being pitted against each other at once. The whole thing reeks of desperation on the part of the executives. People want to be entertained, sure, and there will still be those drawn out by curiosity or nostalgia. But it won't be as big as Hollywood thinks.
At the very least, some blockbusters will draw all of the attention and leave the other films in the dust. Too many "event" films will come out, too many will tank, and the result will be Hollywood going bankrupt trying to make up for the losses of these films they thought would be "sure things."
Once upon a time, Spielberg and Lucas emerged as part of a generation of directors who were anti-Hollywood, making smaller films as an antidote to the formulaic dribble the studios were putting out. When those films became huge successes, Lucas and Spielberg went from anti-Hollywood to becoming Hollywood. They invented the blockbuster, and the studios have adopted that model ever since. But Lucas and Spielberg have seen this before, and now the Blockbuster Age they have started looks to be coming to an end. The Internet is creating the next anti-Hollywood movement, and soon everyone will suffer from Blockbuster Burnout and call for less expensive, more original content.
Of course this is just a prediction. And for all my talk, I'll still probably end up seeing most of these movies, maybe even multiple times. But I love going to see films in theaters. I'm part of a generation that's used to that. But the generations after me aren't. They see movies at home, on laptops, not in theaters. They will look at all these big movies, speak of how the films will empty their wallets, and choose instead to see what's on Netflix while waiting for the Blu Rays to hit.
I could be entirely wrong. I can't speak for thousands of other moviegoers. But at the rate the film industry is churning out these films, one thing is absolutely certain- come 2015, either Hollywood will get very rich, or watch as their beloved blockbuster model crashes and burns. And should they get rich and crank out even more event films? The entire thing will bust eventually. If 2015 is not the end, then it will at least mark the beginning of it.
I hate to be this cynical. Like I said, I love movies, especially the experience of watching them in the theater. Some of my most precious memories are going to see these big event films at midnight, surrounded by friends and family. I hope future generations get to experience that. But the way things are now, the theater-going experience may take a huge hit, if only for a few years. I don't think it'll ever go away, but in the next decade it will very much decline. All I can do is wait and see, but no matter what happens, my love of watching movies will never diminish. And for the thousands of others who love the art of film, they won't stop either.
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